How Spain's climate is changing and what it means for settling

Key rules

• Warming: Spain is warming faster than the global average, most strongly in summer and inland.
• Driest areas: The south, southwest, southeast and Canary Islands are projected to get drier, with the north changing least.
• Coastal land: Low deltas, lagoons and sandy beaches are the most exposed to rising seas.
• Long-term plans: Use official regional projections, not only today's weather, when choosing where to live or buy.

The short version

Spain is warming faster than the world as a whole. Expect hotter and longer summers, more tropical nights, less rain in the south and southeast, and higher seas on low coasts. Official projections should shape long-term choices such as where to live, whether to buy, and how to cool a home.

What has already changed

Spain's average temperature has risen by roughly 1.3 °C since before industrial times. Worldwide, the rise is about 1.1-1.3 °C. Warming since the 1970s has run at roughly 0.3 °C per decade, and summer is about a month longer than in the 1980s.

Tropical nights are nights when the temperature never drops below 20 °C. On the Mediterranean coast and in the south, they have roughly doubled or more since the 1980s. Heatwaves are about twice as frequent.

What is projected

• Heat: Every region warms under every scenario. Inland areas warm more than the coast, and summers warm most. By mid-century, expect roughly 1.5-2.5 °C more under moderate scenarios and about 2-3 °C under high emissions. By 2100, high-emission scenarios give about 4-6 °C inland, and less on coasts and islands.
• Tropical nights and hot days: Under high emissions, the Mediterranean, Balearic and Andalusian coasts could gain tens more tropical nights a year by late century. The Guadalquivir and Ebro valleys could see several more weeks of days above 35 °C.
• Rain and drought: Rainfall is expected to fall mostly in the south and southwest, including the Guadalquivir, Guadiana and Segura basins and the Canary Islands. Rain will come in fewer, more intense episodes, with longer dry spells. The north shows smaller or less certain change. River flows are projected to fall by several to tens of percent by late century, most in the Guadiana, Guadalquivir, Segura and Júcar. Semi-arid areas will grow.
• Sea level: Spanish coasts could see about 0.3-0.5 m of rise by 2100 under moderate scenarios, and up to about 0.7-1 m under high emissions. The most exposed places are the Ebro and Llobregat deltas, the Mar Menor, Doñana and low sandy beaches.

What it means for your decisions

• Choosing a place: The north is projected to change least. The south, southeast and inland valleys face the most heat and drought. Coastal towns are cooler than inland ones but get more tropical nights.
• Choosing a home: Look for good shade, insulation, cross-ventilation and a way to cool the home. If you plan to stay long, these matter more than a view.
• Buying near the sea: Avoid low, flat coastal land such as deltas and lagoons if you want to hold the property for decades.
• Water: In the driest regions, ask about local water supply and restrictions before you commit, especially if you want a garden or pool.
• Health: Heat is the main risk to health, particularly for older people and young children. Plan for hot summers before you arrive.

Other risks on the national plan

Spain's national adaptation plan for 2021-2030 also lists more intense floods, coastal erosion and storm surge, wildfires, soil loss and desertification, and strain on farming, tourism and cities. Check flood and fire exposure for any specific address with your town hall.

Use the questions below for quick answers on inland versus coastal warming, drier regions, sea level and tropical nights.

Frequently asked questions

Will inland Spain warm more than the coast?

Yes, inland Spain is projected to warm more than the coast under every scenario, and summers warm most. By 2100, high-emission scenarios give about 4-6 °C of warming inland, with less on coasts and islands. If you want milder future summers, a coastal or island location is the safer pick.

Which parts of Spain are expected to get drier?

The south and southwest are expected to get drier, mainly the Guadalquivir, Guadiana and Segura areas and the Canary Islands. Rain is also projected to come in more irregular, intense episodes with longer dry spells in between.

How much will sea level rise on Spain's coasts?

Sea level is projected to rise roughly 0.3-0.5 m by 2100 under moderate scenarios, and up to about 0.7-1 m under high emissions. The Ebro and Llobregat deltas, the Mar Menor, Doñana and low sandy beaches are the most exposed. Check how low a coastal property sits before you buy.

Will tropical nights keep increasing?

Yes, tropical nights, when the temperature stays at or above 20 °C, are projected to keep rising, mostly on the Mediterranean, Balearic and Andalusian coasts. Under high emissions, expect tens more per year by late century.